Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 18.082227 21.879386 26.094645 31.095533 36.839930 43.204943 50.763024
2025-03-16 11.503522 16.098861 21.785765 29.229506 38.594624 49.860274 64.297967
2025-03-23 8.918668 13.963131 20.736483 30.252033 43.001496 59.203068 81.016947
2025-03-30 6.764801 11.757955 18.979492 29.776262 45.041077 65.344387 93.800105
2025-04-06 5.755945 10.921250 18.862078 31.339062 49.732991 75.063530 111.647545
2025-04-13 4.171131 8.791717 16.423146 29.114098 48.717118 76.758854 118.589529
2025-04-20 3.485362 8.007945 15.920285 29.675382 51.694042 84.103906 133.622135
2025-04-27 2.980356 7.429682 15.641403 30.503699 55.063637 92.132580 149.959102
2025-05-04 2.602315 7.007174 15.550580 31.590091 58.860426 100.942462 167.793355
2025-05-11 2.228486 6.499999 15.214567 32.185124 61.857327 108.642502 184.276815
2025-05-18 1.834943 5.844040 14.482031 31.966904 63.441870 114.180701 197.682193
2025-05-25 1.448739 5.091240 13.422983 31.001965 63.633126 117.462700 207.694758
2025-06-01 1.161323 4.537273 12.760364 30.865142 65.530750 124.046183 223.930245
2025-06-08 0.824223 3.709452 11.334372 29.050174 64.299288 125.493683 232.267889
2025-06-15 0.705397 3.499779 11.299502 30.070448 68.352101 136.005082 255.686988
2025-06-22 0.543805 3.065940 10.614529 29.597165 69.503123 141.570177 271.198353
2025-06-29 0.486030 2.989851 10.839470 31.152451 74.695586 154.421445 299.339207
2025-07-06 0.325381 2.392865 9.499330 28.938226 72.185205 153.451375 304.097973
2025-07-13 0.269506 2.225301 9.346491 29.496786 75.337668 162.815106 326.859944
2025-07-20 0.228307 2.103955 9.306175 30.321102 79.093399 173.446507 352.198905
2025-07-27 0.197723 2.020058 9.366334 31.402278 83.461918 185.399693 380.261225
2025-08-03 0.164095 1.890505 9.244581 31.994469 86.805869 195.562717 405.501586
2025-08-10 0.126314 1.694227 8.839498 31.777290 88.343187 202.344230 424.937601